What Is Expectancy?
Average outcome per trade after wins, losses, and costs.
Expectancy is your average profit or loss per trade over many outcomes—combining win rate, average win, average loss, and costs into one number.
The expectancy formula
Roughly: (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss) − costs. Positive expectancy with proper size supports survival; negative expectancy with perfect confidence still drains accounts. Compute in R-multiples to compare across symbols. Average outcome per trade after wins, losses, and costs. Process terms show up in journals, not hype posts; log Expectancy on every taken and skipped alert for thirty samples. On TraderBots-style workflows, manual execution remains the default: Discord delivers context, you deliver discipline. Review monthly whether trades tagged with expectancy improved expectancy in R after spread; demote the tag if not. During drawdown, tighten how expectancy gates new alerts instead of increasing size to recover faster—recovery math punishes oversize rebounds. When SwitchPro charts disagree with a VIP screenshot, reconcile symbols and sessions before blaming the alert. Keep a single journal column for expectancy so skipped trades are scored alongside winners—skips often reveal filters that work.
Per-alert-source tracking
Split expectancy by VIP room or agent. You may find one feed fits your hours and execution while another bleeds despite popularity. Data beats loyalty.
Sample size
Ten trades prove nothing. Thirty is a hint; hundred is direction. Do not scale size on ten green trades.
Improvement lever
Raise expectancy by cutting worst tags (news FOMO, off-session scalps) before chasing bigger targets.
Costs line item
Subtract commissions and swap explicitly in expectancy calc—retail drag surprises people at scale.
Rolling expectancy
Use rolling fifty-trade expectancy to catch regime change faster than lifetime average.
Benchmark
Compare expectancy to buy-and-hold benchmark on same capital for perspective—not to beat it, to sanity check.
Expectancy maintenance
Subtract fees and swap explicitly. Use rolling fifty-trade expectancy to catch regime shifts before lifetime averages lie. When a tag goes negative for forty trades, pause the tag—even if chat loves that setup.
FAQ
Is high win rate enough?+
No. Small wins and large losses produce negative expectancy even at 70% wins.
Should I track expectancy on alerts only?+
Track what you actually trade, tagged by source.
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